EXPERT: PAC-12 Will Collapse AGAIN In 2030 As Washington State, Oregon State LEAVE for ACC, Big 12

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The specter of future media rights negotiations looms large over the college athletics landscape, and it's a particularly precarious situation for the revitalized, but still fragile, Pac-12. With major conference TV deals set to expire around 2030 and 2031, the current "stability" of conference alignment could be severely tested, and the Pac-12, having just pieced itself back together, could indeed crumble again as its members are poached.

Here's why:

The Looming Media Rights Cliff:

Big Ten: Their massive deals with FOX, CBS, and NBC expire after the 2029-2030 academic year.
Big 12: Their current extensions with ESPN and FOX run through the 2030-2031 academic year.
SEC: Their exclusive deal with ESPN extends further, through 2033-2034.
ACC: While the ACC's grant of rights and ESPN deal currently run through 2036, lawsuits from Florida State and Clemson are actively challenging its enforceability, seeking to invalidate the GoR or enable exit by the early 2030s.
This means that around 2030-2031, a significant portion of the most valuable college football inventory will hit the market simultaneously.

The Pac-12's Vulnerability:

The "new" Pac-12, set to formally begin in 2026, will comprise Oregon State, Washington State, and a collection of former Mountain West schools (Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Utah State, potentially more). While they are actively negotiating a new media rights deal for 2026 and beyond, it's virtually guaranteed to be significantly less lucrative per school than the deals held by the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, and even the ACC (despite its current issues).

This creates an irresistible incentive for Pac-12 schools, even those that have just joined, to jump ship if offered a slice of a much larger financial pie. A jump from, say, $10-15 million (estimated new Pac-12 deal) to $50-70+ million (potential Big 12/Big Ten deal) is too significant to ignore.
Weakened Grant of Rights: While the new Pac-12 will undoubtedly have a grant of rights to bind its members, the history of conference realignment shows that such agreements, while legally binding, can be overcome by:

Mass Exodus: If enough schools decide to leave simultaneously, the remaining conference can collapse, making exit fees and GoRs less relevant in practice.
Legal Challenges/Settlements: As seen with the ACC, schools are willing to pursue costly legal battles to escape unfavorable GoRs if the financial disparity is too great. The Pac-12's GoR will be tested.
The "Third Superconference" Arms Race: Both the Big 12 and the ACC (should it survive its internal challenges) will be looking to strengthen their positions against the SEC and Big Ten.

Big 12's Opportunity: Commissioner Brett Yormark has consistently stated the Big 12 is "open for business." When the 2030-2031 media rights window opens, the Big 12 will be in a prime position to look West again. Programs like Boise State or San Diego State, if they have built up their brand in the "new Pac-12," could become attractive targets to further solidify the Big 12's footprint and market share.
ACC's Role (if stable): If the ACC manages to weather its current GoR challenges and keep its core intact, it too might eye strategic expansion.
No Clear "Power" Identity for New Pac-12: While the Pac-12 is bringing in some strong Group of Five programs, it fundamentally lacks the historical "Power Conference" brand recognition and top-tier recruiting grounds of its former self. This makes it inherently less stable than conferences with established flagship universities.

The Outlook:

The Pac-12's immediate future (2026 onwards) relies on establishing a stable media deal and solidifying its new membership. However, the period between 2030 and 2031 presents a critical juncture. Unless the new Pac-12 can somehow negotiate a media deal that closes a significant portion of the revenue gap with the Big 12 and ACC, or unless the market for college football rights cools dramatically, it's highly probable that its members will once again become desirable targets for expansion by the more financially robust conferences. This would trigger another round of realignment, potentially leading to the Pac-12 crumbling for a second time, leaving Oregon State and Washington State in an even more isolated position. The lessons from the initial realignment are clear: money talks, and a conference's long-term stability is inextricably linked to its media rights valuation.

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