SEC/Big Ten Dominance: The Big Ten and SEC are leveraging their power and influence over the CFP's future format. They've pushed for a 16-team playoff structure where they would receive significantly more automatic bids (e.g., four each) compared to the Big 12 and ACC (two each), and the Group of Five (one). This direct control over the sport's most lucrative postseason further cements their move towards independent governance.

What this means for "leaving":

The Big Ten and SEC aren't likely to hold a press conference announcing they're no longer "NCAA members." Instead, the "leaving" will manifest as:

De Facto Separate Governing Bodies: For football (and likely men's basketball), the Power Four conferences will essentially operate under their own rules, enforced by the CSC, separate from the NCAA's broader governance structure.
NCAA Becomes a "Holder" for Other Sports: The NCAA would likely continue to oversee academic eligibility, compliance for non-revenue sports ("Olympic sports"), and championships for those sports. Its role would be significantly reduced to that of a facilitator for the vast majority of collegiate athletics outside of the top-tier football and basketball.
Financial Disconnect: The enormous revenues generated by football and men's basketball (especially media rights and CFP payouts) will be almost entirely controlled by the Power Four conferences, with minimal or no direct flow through the NCAA's traditional distribution models.

In essence, the "likelihood" isn't a dramatic walk-out, but rather a gradual but decisive shift of power that will render the NCAA largely irrelevant in the governance and financial oversight of college football's elite level. This process is already well underway due to the House v. NCAA settlement and the subsequent actions of the power conferences.

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